Is the End of Suburbia Approaching?

For the past several years, a motley crew of Americans ranging from novelists to energy investors to senators have warned that rising gas prices will end the suburban way of life and force hordes of people back into cities. As driving even small amounts becomes painfully expensive, it is becoming easy to accept this prediction. But will it hold up?

According to The Los Angeles Times, maybe not. Statistics show that despite gas prices approaching $5/gallon, many suburbs are doing better than cities in terms of population growth and job creation. According to the 2000-2006 census, 90% of all metropolitan growth is occurring in suburban communities.

This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn’t high gas prices encourage people to live closer to centers of employment? Well, yes. But cities are currently lacking the abundance of jobs that would encourage mass migration.

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According to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics, suburban job growth expanded at six times the rate of growth in urban centers from 2001 to 2006. In the Bay Area, the majority of tech industry jobs can be found in Silicon Valley, while many of the city-based start-ups have shuttered. Similar situations can be found across the country.

Of course, the predicted suburban exodus may be yet to come. The statistics mentioned do not include the past two years—when gas prices rose most sharply—and prices will most likely continue to rise. If gas prices hit $10/gal, will it still make sense for corporations to be based outside of city centers? How will people be able to afford driving to the grocery store and back once a week, let alone to their place of work? Suburbia may not be dead yet, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t primed for destruction.

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