Alaska, Southwest to Feel Greatest Climate Change Pain in U.S.
Years of legal wrangling have finally produced a long-awaited report on the current and potential effects of climate change on the U.S. And it should come as no surprise that regions already hurting — Alaska and the arid Southwest — are among the areas expected to feel the greatest pain from continued climate change in the future.
The report, Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States, was released today by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. According to the Government Accountability Project, the study was “years overdue under a requirement of law” and was prepared only after a federal court order last year set a release deadline of May 31, 2008.
Among the report’s highlights (or lowlights, depending on your perspective):
The northern parts of Alaska can expect the greatest warming, most noticeably during the winter months, in years to come;
By the end of this century, the U.S. will warm by an average of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, although about one-fourth of climate models project average warming greater than 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit;
While the effect of climate change on hurricane frequency is unresolved, rainfall and wind speeds of tropical storms are likely to increase. In fact, over much of North America, rain is expected to fall less frequently, but more intensely;
Continued warming will drive cool-weather and alpine species farther north or higher up, though some mountain species might eventually find themselves with “nowhere to migrate”;
As the tundra shifts northward in Alaska, forests will move in to replace it. The increase in carbon dioxide uptake thanks to more trees, though, will be offset by the decreased reflectivity of the region, which will mean more sunlight absorption and warmer temperatures;
Those tree-killing bug outbreaks and dead tree-fueled forest fires in Alaska, the West and Southwest? Expect more of them in years to come. For regions not accustomed to a regular fire cycle, that could mean the death knell for species like the saguaro cactus and the Joshua tree;
Small islands with cloud forests such as those found in Hawaii are likely to see some high-elevation species, especially birds, go extinct;
Salt marsh habitats and barrier island ecosystems? Goodbye. The U.S. has already lost more than half its original salt marsh habitat, the report notes, and rising sea levels will threaten much of what’s left;
Some agricultural crops might see an initial productivity boost as carbon dioxide levels and temperatures rise, but the long-term impact could be more crop failures … especially as climate-driven weeds and crop diseases expand;
People might increasingly move from climate-affected regions to other parts of the U.S., altering population centers and economic activity. The reason in many cases might not be climate per se but changes in the availability of insurance;
Transportation infrastructure (already crumbling in many parts of the country because of lack of investment) will feel the hurt of climate change, especially in Alaska, where melting permafrost is making the landscape shift dramatically, and in coastal areas like the Gulf Coast.
In short, whether you live in a highly vulnerable area like Alaska or the desert Southwest, or somewhere else, you’re likely to feel the impact of climate change in one way or another.
As Rick Piltz, director of the Government Accountability Project’s Climate Science Watch program, put it, “the world has lost precious years to Bush administration officials’ spin, which has failed to prepare our country to deal effectively with the problem.”
